ESTIMATING THE TERRITORIAL AUTOCORRELATION OF AIR PASSENGERS FLOWS IN EUROPE USING A MULTIVARIATE GRAVITY MODEL

Andreea Mihaela Buraga, Alexandru Rusu

Abstract


Using a gravity model that includes the cost distances and the airports' mass at origin and destination, we have obtained a matrix of residuals for 21325 air links in Europe. These residuals served as the basis for calculating the coefficients of territorial autocorrelation in a multiple regional context. The coefficients we obtained were classified using an hierarchical clustering, at country level. This final typology shows that the national frontiers are more and more permeable to air traffic, having a limitated impact on the intensity of air links between the airports. Some spatial discontinuities are still at work in the European air space and they still have an influence on the amount of traffic, negatively (West-East opposition) or positively (the Scandinavian countries vs. the mainland). Mapping the residuals of the air flows gravity model indicate that these spatial discontinuities can occur also at regional scales of analysis, but they are fuelled by other logics: economic performance, tourism or workforce migration.

Keywords


territorial autocorrelation; gravity models; territorial belonging frame; air flows; ETIS PLUS database; OLS regression

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15551/scigeo.v60i2.327

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